The blowout job growth in January was partially attributed to seasonal adjustment factors. The so-called seasonal adjustment factors likely flattered retail sales in January and some economists expected a reversal in retail sales in February. The drop in sales in the prior two months was blamed on the front-loading of holiday shopping, which economists said had not been fully adjusted for by the model that the government uses to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the data. Retail sales are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation. Retail sales vaulted 6.4% year-on-year in January. The Commerce Department said that retail sales surged 3.0% last month, the largest increase since March 2021, after declining by an unrevised 1.1% in December.Įconomists polled by Reuters had forecast sales would increase 1.8%, with estimates ranging from 0.5% to 3.0%. 'There's no roadmap for the central bank seeing data like this.' 'Every day the economy does not lose steam, the risks go up astronomically that the Fed will lose patience and make those recession forecasts a reality by jacking up rates too high,' said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York.

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